Science of Approximation - The Apophis, part 4

August 22, 2021.

"And you are?" The elderly woman on the stage squinted as she searched the auditorium for the young man calling her attention.

"Mike. Michael Sanders ma'am. We met earlier."

"Yes." Mrs. Miranda Rodriguez-Devreux acknowledged reluctantly. "The eager one."

"Yes ma'am. You said in the presentation that an impact is unlikely for Cobalt-12 and 2017 UC271." Mike paused. "What about for 2004 MN4? The one they call Apophis."

"The Apophis is something close to the heart of my late husband, Mr. Sanders." Miranda looked away for a second then walked to the folder of transparencies she had on a side desk. "I may have something here that would show the exact trajectory of the said asteroid."

The auditorium went dark again. An black and white image of a stone mass in empty space flashed into the projector screen.


"That thing is huge." The young man beside Mike whispered.

"There's more to this asteroid than that, Peter." Mike confided.

"You were saying something Mr. Sanders?" Miranda shot a look directly at two men chatting.

"Yes, ma'am. Isn't it true that it is mostly made up of solid osmium?"

Miranda raised an eyebrow. She was visibly impressed. "You did your research young man."

"Yes, Apophis is made up of one of the densest and most toxic natural element known to man. They say, even without hitting land mass, its entry burn in our atmosphere would easily kill half the living population of the northern hemisphere in 2 weeks."

Everybody in the room fell silent.

"But of course." The lights in the auditorium came on again. "With a 7 million to 1 chance of impact, we will be lucky just to see it with our telescopes. Now with the study program, I will be asking everyone to..."

"Ma'am." Mike raised his hand again.

"Yes, Mr. Sanders." Miranda spoke sternly now.

"Is it true that an assistant of Professor Devreux once alerted the district board of Arizona regarding a flaw in this impact probability. He said with the tail asteroid, the impact chance was more like 4500 to 1."

"Mr. Sanders." Miranda motioned towards the stage exit. "Meet me backstage in 5 minutes. Class dismissed."